Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Thinkin Crazy - A Three Level Ponzi (Pyramid?) Scheme

My mind has taken me to new and scary places. I have several new speculations on the table which I am going to share with everyone. Nothing has been done yet and nothing will probably be done for at least a week. The ponzi scheme I have in mind has three main phases:

Phase 1: Gold speculation with Newmont (NEM). Double down on the gold call options expiring in October before the CPI is released on 10/14. Large CPI number is expected and when it hits or hits in larger effect gold should ramp again. (Maybe?)

Phase 2: Sandisk (SNDK) speculation. Earnings are released on 10/20/2005. Options expire on 10/21/2005. It should be possible to pick up same month option . If I play it more conservative - nice money might be made with a straddle, where I buy a call options and put options on both sides of the equity price. If the stock stays put I lose my entire investment. However if stock moves big either way I can have a nice profit. My gut is telling me to play it more to the short side though by going long the PUTS. I may be able to buy out-of-the money PUTS that would need at least a 5% move in the common to become in-the-money. Due to the ridiculous implied volatility in this stock it won't pay to buy them earlier. Waiting until the last day the time premium that I am paying will be at its absolute lowest and I may be able to buy the desired PUTS in the $0.05 - $0.50 range. If the down-move in the stock that I am expecting materializes - it should be in at least the 5% range and potentially in the 10-20% range as investors expectations have quickly gotten ahead of themselves, especially with the new factory expenses coming online in full-force this fall.

Phase 3: The9 (NCTY) speculation. Earnings are out on 11/17. Money should be taken out of the Sandisk speculation entirely and plopped into the NCTY trade. Buying maximum amount available

Why is it a Ponzi scheme? The whole process counts on bringing new money in, in order to pyramid the gains through my positions appreciation. If any phase of the speculation fails, I will likely lose the entire investment and be back to the drawing board and poorer whatever amount it was that I commit to the speculation.

Right now I am planning on starting this with around 1K, although 2K would be much preferable. What is the potential goal? 50K. What is the probable result? $0.50. ..............


Regards,

BG

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