Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Only a few comments tonight

Portfolio is still gettin worked right now. XLF (S&P 500 financial sector ETF) continued to excel today - and is currently one of the strongest sectors in the market. It is nearing 52-week and all time highs in the $30.79 area and is currently around $30. It is doing this right in the face of sharply rising interest rates and many people, including myself are having trouble putting this puzzle together. Newmont Mines (NEM) had mediocre earnings today and the stock was down a few %. I am not that concerned here as I see their fortune more closely tied with metals prices - if gold continues its ascent (currently quite doubtful), I expect NEM to participate in the rise along with the rest of the miners.

Now back to a new position which could be opened up in the coming days - re: NCTY (The9.com) - they are reporting earnings on 11/10/2005 in the evening. Stock was down a few % today on low volume. I expect low volume to continue as this thing gets banged around prior to earnings. If a time to accumulate this stock does come it may be quite soon (re: within the next week.) This evening Baidu.com (BIDU) another Chinese internet stock got hammered in after hours trading after reporting so-so earnings and I have a feeling this will affect the other stocks in the sector perhaps. An additional sell off in the broad averages would be helpful. The stock is currently right under 19 - around $18.80 and I am hoping to get in with an average cost closer to the $15-17 area. This would be a significant move from here - but I do think it is possible under the right combination of negative news and negative market action.

No new announcements in treasuries other than they continue to sell off and HARD. I don't know how much longer this can keep up without the S&P 500 index and DJIA and Nasdaq too for that matter having some big down days. There is a lot of talk right now and still.......about the winter rally. I have been wrong so far to expect a major sell-off as none have materialized, but I also am skeptical about what the catalyst would be for a major winter rally. Market trades on expectations / anticipation and if companies are giving neutral guidance and reporting great trailing earnings - I think that it may be very tough to raise the bar for 10%+ earnings growth again in 2006 after several strong years fueled by lower interest rates and energy prices for that matter ( re: 2003, 2004, and 2005.)

That wraps it up - we will see what tomorrow brings. I don't remember if I mentioned it last night - but several readers have requested to have a daily list of the posts sent to their e-mail where they can then decide whether or not to pull up the posts of the day. Please e-mail me at bengreen@gmail.com - if you are not currently receiving the posts and are interested.

Regards,

BG

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