Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Run on the dollar is starting

Take a look at the current interest rate moves going on in the treasuries markets and this chart of Euro v. Dollar over past several days - not to mention dollar v. gold, etc. Run on the dollar is starting and this means high interest rates and slower growth for the us.

Treasuries:





Euro v. Dollar:





Dollar v. Gold:

Current position of short interest rate sensitive securities and (soon to be) long chemicals seems a good fit to me. Higher interest trends should bring an end to the commodities price increase at some point, but in the process should manage to kill housing even worse. I will be spending some more time later this week on the real estate related sectors - 2nd quarter is going to be brutal for these companies.

Best Regards,

BG

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