Saturday, April 22, 2006

Tough week

Heres the survey of the damage:

I am currently holding a positive year together by the skin of my teeth. What was supposed to be easy profits in the bag are instead turning into quick losses depleting my capital. So what's the next step?

I am tempted to crawl back into the cave that I came out of and put the funds into money market for a while. Still - I have done some decent due diligence on GGC and I would like to see this one through to the end. So no other trades before 4/28 other than GGC - but how much capital to commit to GGC and how to do it? I don't think I can commit more than 2K to the trade as the portfolio has just been drawn down too much. So the question is how much I want to leverage it and over what time horizon. I am drawn to the August or November call options so that if the trade is successful I could ride it for a while and benefit from any decreases in energy prices.

The opposite strategy is also attractive however in the case that energy prices do not moderate - that would be taking short term May calls and buying at the money options or slightly out of the money options. Both strategies take a positive move in GGC as the key assumption and are just testing which approach would be better.

Here are the contracts that i am looking at:

May:
I am looking at the May 25 calls or the May 30 calls.

August:

I am looking at the August $25 calls or the $30 calls.

November:

I am looking at the November $25 calls as interesting.

So that concludes the survey. We will have to see what GGC does in the coming week to get a sure feel for the plan. Chemicals as a sector are currently rallying. I don't know if this is a dead cat bounce or if they are rallying as leading indicator of crude and energy peaking out. We will have to see.

Best regards,

BG

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