Friday, May 19, 2006

Too much volatility

Portfolio is bouncing back nicely today thanks to miraculous end of week collapses in LEND and MTG. I have included the updated portfolio snapshot as well as the profit and losses for LEND and FHN trades. All in all I was in the PUTS trades for about 1 month and I made less than $100 bucks cumulatively. I still think the money to be made for the remainder of the year though is on the short side, so I will be probing again soon - probably in the similar names. Especially since Greenspan publicly announced "the end of the housing boom" recently:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060519/ap_on_bi_ge/greenspan_speech

If Greenspan is announcing that the boom is over - I take that to mean that the collapse is just beginning and I plan to get heavily short in some of the preferred real estate spreadsheet names which I have developed over the coming days/weeks.

Here are the trade snapshots:


Here is the portfolio snapshot:

Two days ago the portfolio was at $4,000. $3,000 volatility or a 50% swing in portfolio values is probably evidence that you are either two leveraged or two concentrated i your positions. I have elected to limit any future short positions to maximum of two and preferably only one position - the *best one* that I can find - an then just focus on monitoring and better entry/exit.

Anyways - I think the market bounces here for a few days. I will be looking for position entry by the end of next week or early the following week. You know the names I am looking at. I am also looking for attractive leverage opportunities - a la MTG.

Best regards,

BG

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