Sunday, September 25, 2005

Gold and Oil Looking Down Tomorrow

Sorry everybody, as I did not finish the ADSX report today. An opportunity arose to play 18 holes of golf and I decided to take advantage of it. Hopefully I can get the ADSX report out later this week or next weekend.

As a market preview tomorrow, the spin is pretty heavy and I think the market is going to be running up big time. I would expect tech, financials, homebuilding to all rally solidly this week. I also expect Greenspan's comments at the economist's meeting to reflect something to the extent - of inflation completely undercontrol and he will continue to raise rates at a measured pace.

This should place a decent hit on gold, oil, and many other commodities. I would expect this to continue for a week or maybe more, until the CPI numbers are released. I expect the October number to be a real blockbuster. At that point I think bonds will begin to sell-off some more and gold rally, etc.

I expect significant drawdown in the portfolio this week - with my gold options positions cut in half or possibly even an 80% draw-down. I have not decided yet if I am going to double down (most likely), but I will definitely be keeping an eye on things and do my best not to sugar coat things as it looks like I have bought way too early and at way too high a price.

Regards,

BG

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