Another uneventful day

No real conviction today. Financials are still strong and holding up well. The broad market had a down day, especially the Nasdaq. Gold moved a little bit up. Treasuries finally firmed and stop their free fall as the yields which moved huge over the past few days stabilized - here is the chart:

These bond yields will be very important to watch as signalling for the broader equity market. I think we are deep into the Fed tightening cycle and people who control large amounts of money - have got to be worried, as at least on the surface all of the talk by Greenspan and the other Governors has been - "we are concerned about inflation," we are going to continue at a "measured pace." If that language is maintained at least through December (which I expect), we could have 30 year rate above 5% for the first time in many years. I think this signalling of higher borrowing costs throughout the economy, especially housing has got to put the total pinch on here.

As far as the short-short term re: tomorrow - who the hell knows. The next big event that is up is on 11/1 re: the Fed meeting and any type of guidance that the chief plans to give. I still am bearish but that has not served me well over past few months and I am pretty indifferent at this point about what happens over next two months. There is too much uncertainty and too much risk and probably too little compensation for those risks.

I am still looking at NCTY it broke down a little bit more but on really low volume. This stock has such a low trading volume now that it can get batted all over the place. If a decent sell-off does continue, I don't think 15-17 range is out of the question here - here are a couple charts:

1-year:


down-channel:

Managed to butcher those charts pretty good - and volume is extremely meaningless - still I think a trend is evident there and I expect it to continue until some meaningful change occurs - re: either a huge move up in the market, or more probably - earnings report on 11/10. In the meantime - lets hope that we can get in for closer to 15 - than 19. I know there are a lot of people out there who bought big lots in the 25-26 range thinking the breakout was going to happen re: Q2 and are extremely dissapointed - but are still holding the bag...... I think stock could move into 29-30 area before a lot of selling pressure emerges if the Q3 earnings report turns out to be the big shaker everyone has been expecting. If not - we can probably expect to visit the $13-14 area.

Regards,

BG