Monday, October 02, 2006

Position, set, match

I received my final execution in Washington Mutual today and I ended up extending the time horizon an extra month to November 2006. This was more costly but the leverage is still astronomical - so I am not too concerned about the extension.

This is the final portfolio allocation as of today:

This will probably not be updated again until this winter. Any other posts would just be crying or bragging and are not useful to anyone. If the positions were to hit in a big way - maybe sending the portfolio up 100 or 200% it is possible that I would liquidate them and roll the money into another sector on the real estate spreadsheet that is not in the same phase of the decline.

I have a gut feeling that it will be possible to capitalize on the downdraft over a 2-3 year period, with the transactional players getting hit first (title, property insurance, banks, builders) and then followed by the players which are holding the systemic risk (re: fannie mae, freddie mac, bigger banks), and ending up with the REITS when the market values of property finally begin to decline in earnest and the NAV that has been the building block for the recent appreciation finally going out the window.

Hopefully we can make it to round 2.....

Best regards,

BG

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