Saturday, November 19, 2005

XLF Trade Expires Worthless

The last of the XLF Put options expired worthless yesterday. I would put these two XLF "short" positions as my worst calls of the year undoubtedly. I still feel that I will be vindicated by next June with the XLF trading in the low 20s - but needless to say - it was suicidal to restart the XLF short after I lost so much money on the first one.

Although I am even more bearish now on the financials than ever - I think it is stupid to underestimate the strength - and at this point - easier to just watch and see - "how high can it go?"

Entry and Exit Chart:


Profit and Loss Chart:

I don't have the description here because the trade will not be settled until sometime early next week. I can say with 100% surety though that I LOST $1610.05 entirely on this one - as the options ended out of the money and worthless.

I am still looking for a good site to play the real time portfolio in. I may end up choosing Yahoo - but then unfortunately you have to use login/pass each time.

Gold is looking very strong and I want to buy more now - however I am forcing myself to have discipline in the portfolio - as I already have a sizeable leveraged position that will make good money if Gold does in fact go into the $500 range as it is looking.

Here is the portfolio snapshot - disregard the XLF position as it is no longer active:


At one point last week the portfolio was as low as $7200. This occurred before the gold call options took off. I am tempted to buy more of the Newmont call options - even here as if gold does make a move into the $550 range the stock should be around $60 and the calls worth a minimum of $800-900 each. This is a big spec bet though and I think I would rather just stay in cash - as my current position allows me plenty of upside. It may be nicer to allow some more time horizon as well - we will see.

Best Regards,

BG

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