More factors - confusion or enlightment?

Every week I consider a variety of sources when I am thinking about speculating or even investing in a particular stock, bond, option trade, etc. I have posted some of my favorite sources in the links section of the page. Most of my trades have some origin in the fundamentals - the idea could be industry-specific - re: housing or flash memory - or a broader macro focus - re: rising interest rates / narrowing interest spreads - re: financials. However, I have found myself depending more and more on charts in making a decision. I look more often lately to trend lines, support and resistance, volume, and other rudimentary indicators. I am an elementary chartist so I don't have any expectation of success based on my technical analysis skills. Instead, it is more of an observation about my development - not sure if it is good or bad. One of my goals in finishing up this year and in the months/years going forward is to combine an approach to investing / speculating that is multi-tiered. The following in no particular order of importance are what I consider in aggregate to be necessary requirements/considerations for my investment methodology (I don't know enough yet to rank them):

1) Macro considerations - what are interest rates, currency rates, GDP, inflation, etc. telling us about the market. Where exactly are we in the business cycle? (and yes - I do believe that business cycles EXIST.) And how does my investment choice match up to this broader outlook - did it have its genesis from macro considerations, and if not - if it is instead more of a micro or value play, etc. - could it be negatively impacted by known macroeconomic considerations (can't consider catastrophic low probability events)

2) Technical considerations - what does the chart tell me about where this stock has been and where it is headed? What is the long term trend? Is volume confirming? Has the stock recently pierced some important support or resistance line? Is it battleground stock? Is the stock liquid?

3) Fundamentals - what is the outlook for the specific industry? Where does the company rank in it industry re: traditional metrics - earnings growth, debt levels, profit margins? Does the company have any type of economic/competitive advantage - re: royalty revenue or really high gross margins or quasi-monoply position, etc.?

4) Event risk - am I buying this security contingent on some type of event - re: earnings, new product release, FDA approval, etc. - and if my expectation does not develop what is the downside risk in the stock? Is this a 1 point down and 10 points up opportunity (re: NCTY) or is this a 1 point up and 10 points down potential?

5) Bull/bear - am I fully capable of arguing both sides of the trade? If I am unable to understand both sides - then I may be surprised. Being surprised in financial markets is seldom a "good thing."

I am currently thinking that the best plays are those that have a solid macroeconomic underpinning (re: several tail winds) are not in a late stage climax run technically and have solid and hopefully improving fundamentals.

I have done a lot of heavily event based trades this year with mixed results. My goal going forward is to make longer term trend based trades in the sectors that I like and try less to call short term market movements - unless I figure that I have an undeniable advantage re: analysis (this will happen seldom to never.) I have a few different ideas on how to implement this approach. A good start would be to apply the above framework for considering each trade. Another good step would be to keep lists of sectors that I consider "troubled" or "cloudy future" fundamentally and see how long they can technically battle the inevitable - XLF definitely fits here as well as TLT :). I could also track the sectors that I think have a bright future and where exactly they are in the cycle. Could also be used as a proving ground for future selections.

Best regards,

BG

Best regards,

BG